The Impact Of G20 Summit Is Short And Many Long Empty Raw Material Ends Limit The Rebound Space.

In June, PTA started to rebound. The hype at the beginning of the G20 summit in the first month has pushed prices up.

However, at present, the industry is in the low consumption season, and PTA lacks the power to continue upward.

Britain's retreat to Europe will lose its crude oil profits, and the impact of raw materials on PTA prices will be empty. At present, it is in a low demand season. There will be little room for recovery of polyester and loom. Once the stock of its products rises, the pressure of enterprises will increase, and the device will inevitably reduce production, thus it will be difficult to sustain PTA.

Therefore, although the PTA will remain strong in the short term, there will be limited room for further rebound and may maintain a sideways situation.

Since June,

On the low side, PTA enterprises lose production, and enterprises' willingness to reduce production is rising.

In mid June, the parking lot of Hon Bang petrochemical and Ningbo Taihua led to a sharp decline in the operating rate of PTA, and the price was strengthened. However, with the restart of BP and Ningbo platform, the profit reduction effect of centralized production reduction was weakened.

It is understood that in early July, Yisheng Dalian and Fujian Jialong device had a maintenance plan, which would be offset by the restart of the Hon Bang petrochemical plant.

Therefore,

The supply side will remain stable for a certain period of time, but the low cost of processing will have certain support for price and temporarily block the down space.

On Friday, Britain announced its withdrawal from Europe, and Prime Minister Cameron announced his resignation.

The news made the pound plunge 11%, oil prices plunged 5%, and commodity pressure fell.

The panic of Britain's retreat to Europe will continue to play a role in the market, and the growth of demand for risk and the strengthening of the US dollar will still be bad for crude oil prices.

Once oil prices continue to fall, on the one hand, the PTA will be negative from psychology. On the other hand, bad profits will be passed down through the industrial chain.

At present, the price difference between PX and Shek Na is nearly 400 dollars per ton.

The profit is better, the price has the space which falls, once the PX price continues to fall down, the PTA cost surface weakness will drag on the price.

Therefore, the impact of the recent macro level and raw material end on PTA prices will be mainly bad, which will limit the rebound of PTA prices.

According to the seasonal rule, it has entered the traditional off-season of polyester industry. The load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms will continue to decline, and the starting rate of polyester industry will also decline due to the weakening of consumption.

However, in September, the G20 summit will be held in Hangzhou. The key industries such as printing and dyeing, chemical industry and so on will be faced with rectification.

According to Zhuo Chuang's information data, the production capacity of polyester produced by this time limit is about 18 million 500 thousand tons, and its output is reduced by more than 860 thousand tons.

Therefore, polyester enterprises maintain production in the off-season to make up for the loss of output before the peak season, and the starting rate of polyester is higher than that of the previous two years.

At the same time, the downstream weaving link appeared in June, which was the first to drop and then rise. This is also the performance of G20 summit consumption, which has some support for PTA price in the short term.

However, from the perspective of the industrial chain, the decline in polyester production of 860 thousand tons means that the demand for PTA has decreased by nearly 700 thousand tons, and the demand for PX has decreased by nearly 500 thousand tons, which is much larger than that of the 520 thousand PTA PTA and 80 thousand tons of PX.

The G20 summit will also affect the terminal textile printing and dyeing industry, while the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are concentrated in textile printing and dyeing capacity. The range of production is 300 km from the radius of Hangzhou, which will involve more than 50% of the country's capacity.

Although there may be discrepancies between actual production and statistical data, the general pattern remains unchanged.

From this perspective, the impact of the G20 Summit on PTA is bad.