The Trend Of The Renminbi Surprised The Investment Market.

The depreciation of RMB P gives more warning to the mainland enterprises in the US dollar financing.

The mainland's highly leveraged enterprises, such as housing companies, are keen to issue us dollar bonds for financing. Steel companies are also starting to restart iron ore dollar trade financing in a tight capital environment.

This round of devaluation has made a comprehensive warning to the market's overly optimistic unilateral appreciation of the renminbi.

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< p > < < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > RMB > /a > exchange rate. At present, there are two analyses and hypotheses in the global investment market: < /p >

< p > one, the state acquiesced in acquiescence in depreciation.

Under the low interest rate in the mainland, the PBC dominated the intermediate price.

On the one hand, due to the recent pressure of RMB arbitrage hot money inflow has not been reduced, low interest rate environment and depreciation of the RMB dual block to block arbitrage hot money.

In addition, if we can change the unilateral appreciation expectation of RMB and form a two-way Fluctuating RMB exchange rate market in the future, we can make preparations for accelerating the marketization of exchange rate.

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In the spot exchange rate market, the people's Bank of China (PBC), while buying the US dollar and selling renminbi at the same time, releases liquidity. < p >

On the other hand, the PBC has recovered liquidity in the open market with the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" buy back method < /a > to maintain the neutral currency operation in the mainland.

The mainland can maintain a lower interbank borrowing interest rate cost with cash return deposits and hot money inflows.

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< p > the difference between this Renminbi and the past is that the RMB in the mainland's foreign exchange market has fallen first, and then the international market has declined.

The surplus of bank sales and sales in January was a new record.

If the foreign exchange and foreign exchange assets of the people's Bank of China increased significantly in accordance with the above description in February, there are some support for this assumption.

If the people's Bank of China needs to buy more dollars, it will naturally need to increase the supply of basic currencies, resulting in a fall in money market interest rates.

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< p > 2, market forces dominate the exchange rate.

The fall of the RMB is only the market behavior of foreign exchange arbitrage funds. Under the loose liquidity, the level of capital interest rate has dropped significantly. The a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > spreads > /a > narrowed rapidly. After the Spring Festival, the mainland's economic data in the vacuum period, the investment market is pessimistic about the mainland's economic expectations, leading to the sharp reversal of the direction and expectation of foreign arbitrage funds, and the outflow of funds, leading to the fall of the RMB.

The most recent decline in the RMB exchange rate is the spot rate, which reflects the change of commercial banks' foreign exchange and sales. If we look at the official attitude represented by the Central Bank of the people's Bank of China, there is little change. The renminbi is in a state of passive depreciation.

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Generally speaking, the relationship between RMB exchange rate and policy is related to the mainland economy and interest rate factors to a greater extent. P

Theoretically, capital free flow, exchange rate policy and interest rate policy stability must not be three.

At present, the mainland's interest rate policy is independent in principle, while the exchange rate and capital account are in a semi independent state. The exchange rate can be slightly deviated from the middle price, the current account items are liberalized, and the residents of the mainland can purchase foreign exchange freely under fifty thousand dollars.

In view of the microcosmic situation, the interest rate of one-year treasury bonds has declined slowly since January, so it is not surprising that the exchange rate has fallen from the decline in February logically.

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What is the core of monetary policy? P? Interest rate or exchange rate? I believe that the impact of short-term changes on exchange rate is limited for the mainland economy, but the impact of interest rate changes on the economy is extremely far-reaching.

Earlier, there was a suggestion from the mainland that the abolition of the "balance treasure" was in fact worried that the mainland loan interest rate would continue to rise and damage the economy.

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< p > I think the RMB is hard to keep falling, and the government will not sit idly by the continuing economic downturn. There is still room for mainland policy.

The author estimates that the RMB devaluation is only limited in the short term, and that the situation of RMB fall may continue in the short term of one or two weeks, but the fluctuation is hard to record.

Looking at the situation, the RMB will still appreciate appreciable in 2014, but the elasticity of exchange rate will increase and the amplitude of two-way fluctuation will also increase.

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